Factbox-Brokerages lift S&P 500 target on hopes for soft landing, rate cuts

(Reuters) – Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500, spurred by expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy and growing odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield

target

Goldman Sachs 5,600 4.25% 1.08 150 7.20

Morgan Stanley 5,400(for 1 140 7.5

June 2025)

UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25

Wealth

Management*

Wells Fargo 5,100-5,300 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10 156-160

Investment

Institute

Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

J.P. Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25

BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.12 158 7.45

Research

Deutsche Bank 5,500 4.60% 1.07 135

Citigroup 5,600 1.02 135 7.25

4.20%

HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10

Oppenheimer

5,900

UBS Global 5,600 4.0% 1.05 160 7.15

Research*

Evercore ISI 6,000

RBC 5,700

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in four years in June amid cheaper gasoline and moderating rents, firmly putting disinflation back on track and drawing the Federal Reserve another step closer to cutting interest rates in September.

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.8% 2.7%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%

Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%

Investment

Institute

Barclays

2.9% 2.6%

J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%

BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%

Research

Deutsche Bank 3.10%

Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%

HSBC 3.4%

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Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.7% 0.8% 6.9%

Sachs

2.5% 4.9% 1.2%

Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%

Wealth

Management*

Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 6.2%

5.0% 1.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.6% 2.3% 0.8% 1.0% 6.5%

4.7%

BofA Global 3.2% 2.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.7% 5.8%

Research

Deutsche 3.2% 2.4% 5.2% 0.9% 7.0%

Bank

1.2%

Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%

HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%

UBS Global 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.7% 7.0%

Research*

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila, Anil D’Silva, Janane Venkatraman and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

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